UNITED NATIONS , There is a 40% chance of the world temporarily hitting the 1.5C temperature rise threshold in one of the next five years, the UN weather agency warns in a new report issued on Thursday.<\/p>\n
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said there was a 40% chance of the watershed global warming mark being met during the time frame, and these odds are increasing with time.<\/p>\n
The 1.5\u00b0C mark was established as the desirable target for all the countries of the world who signed up to the Paris Agreement to limit temperature rises, in order to prevent permanent changes that threaten the wellbeing of all life on earth. The agreement calls for limiting rises to 2\u00b0C or below.<\/p>\n
There is a 90% likelihood of at least one year between 2021-2025 becoming the warmest on record, which would dislodge 2016 from the top ranking, according to the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, produced by the United Kingdom\u2019s Met Office, the WMO lead centre for such predictions.<\/p>\n
Up to the end of 2025, high-latitude regions and the Sahel are likely to be wetter, the report suggests, and there is an increased chance of more tropical cyclones in the Atlantic compared to the average, taken from the start of the 1980s.<\/p>\n
The annual update harnesses the expertise of internationally acclaimed climate scientists and the best prediction systems from leading climate centres around the world to produce actionable information.<\/p>\n
\u201cThese are more than just statistics\u201d, WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said. \u201cIncreasing temperatures mean more melting ice, higher sea levels, more heatwaves and other extreme weather, and greater impacts on food security, health, the environment and sustainable development,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis study shows \u2013 with a high level of scientific skill \u2013 that we are getting measurably and inexorably closer to the lower target of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt is yet another wakeup call that the world needs to fast-track commitments to slash greenhouse gas emissions and achieve carbon neutrality\u201d, Professor Taalas said.<\/p>\n
\u201cTechnological advances now make it possible to track greenhouse gas emissions back to their sources as a means of precisely targeting reduction efforts\u201d, he noted.<\/p>\n
He said the report also underlines the need for climate adaptation. \u201cOnly half of 193 WMO Members have state of the art early warning services.<\/p>\n
Countries should continue to develop the services that will be needed to support adaptation in climate-sensitive sectors \u2013 such as health, water, agriculture and renewable energy \u2013 and promote early warning systems that reduce the adverse impacts of extreme events\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cBesides limitations in early warning services we are having severe gaps in weather observations especially in Africa and island states.<\/p>\n
This has a major negative impact on the accuracy if the early warnings in those areas and globally. We need to invest in the basic networks as well.\u201d he concluded.<\/p>\n
In 2020 \u2013 one of the three warmest years on record \u2013 the global average temperature was 1.2 \u00b0C above the pre-industrial baseline, according to the WMO\u2019s report on the State of the Global Climate 2020, released in April.<\/p>\n
It highlighted the acceleration in climate change indicators like rising sea levels, melting sea ice, and extreme weather, as well as worsening impacts on socio-economic development.<\/p>\n
And Thursday\u2019s update confirms that trend. In the coming five years, the annual mean global temperature is likely to be at least 1\u00b0C warmer \u2013 within the range 0.9\u00b0C \u2013 1.8\u00b0C \u2013 than preindustrial levels.<\/p>\n
The chance of temporarily reaching 1.5\u00b0C has roughly doubled compared to last year\u2019s predictions, said WMO.<\/p>\n
This is mainly due to using an improved temperature dataset to estimate the baseline rather than sudden changes in climate indicators.<\/p>\n
This current year and the crucial climate change negotiations, COP26, in November, have been widely described as a \u201cmake-or-break\u201d chance to prevent climate change spiraling ever more out of control, noted WMO.<\/p>\n
Tackling climate change is high on the agenda of the G7 leaders summit, due to be hosted by the UK from 11-13 June.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
UNITED NATIONS , There is a 40% chance of the world temporarily hitting the 1.5C temperature rise threshold in one of the next five years, the UN weather agency warns in a new report issued on Thursday. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said there was […]<\/p>\n
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